An interesting analysis of what Trump as president would mean. Bremmer specializes in studies of global risk and is very even-handed here. On the good side, he doesn’t think the chances of Trump involving us in nuclear war are very high (yay for that!), or that he would create some type of conflict with Iran (it’s not clear he actually cares enough about Iran, or perhaps more likely, like his son, he gets his foreign policy lessons from Hollywood movies, and remembers to never get involved in a land war in Asia), or that he would seriously mess things up with China.
On the other hand, he would seriously mess up the world. Trump’s lack of coherent policy or ideas would be a disaster for the US and everyone else. Promoting this as “I want to surprise people” is idiocy as the article points out several times. It would result in a lack of confidence from allies, shred the dollar to pieces, and result in enemies being much more likely to test the US to see what the response is, since there would be no way to tell otherwise. “A clear policy, and predictable outcomes, help shape the behavior of the world’s bad actors.”
On the dollar: “An unpredictable foreign policy, the product of either an administration that likes surprises or a temperamentally erratic commander in chief, will undermine that confidence quickly. Worse, any hint from the president that the U.S. might deliberately default on its debt, for any reason, will inflict damage that can’t be undone, and it will push foreign governments to look more urgently for an alternative….This risk is unprecedented for a credible presidential candidate: No one else has said the things Trump is saying about debt and America’s global relationships.” It’s one thing to shoot your mouth off about things you don’t know, even when you’re a presidential candidate, but it is much different when you are President. Words matter.
And then there’s this: “ Finally, a Trump presidency would make the United States, its citizens and its assets the single most attractive target for Al Qaeda, ISIL, and other Islamic militant groups.” This one is pretty obvious – while we have been comparatively spared in this area compared to much of the rest of the world in this regard, much of that has been due to having level-headed leaders who understand complexities. Trump doesn’t.
The conclusion? “A Trump foreign policy will undermine U.S. exceptionalism, the consensus-based conviction that America will fight for more than its self-interest and is therefore worthy of emulation. That idea has sustained plenty of damage in recent years. It will sustain more. But the biggest risk posed by a Donald Trump foreign policy is that he will destroy this worthy aspiration once and for all.”
And he's a short fingered vulgarian.
